Preview of the CBR policy meeting: Gradual rates ascent to continue
smartmoney.oneOur baseline forecast assumes a more cautious (tactical) action, in the form of a 25-bps rate hike to 7.00% at the forthcoming meeting. This forecast takes into account recent clarifications by central bank officials about the importance of moving to fine-tuning of monetary policy in the current situation.Since it is rather difficult to accurately forecast the inflation peak now, sharp tightening moves appear too risky.
Moreover, the latest spike in inflation was mostly driven by food prices (especially for vegetables) against the backdrop of an early onset of cold weather.