ITI Capital: The rouble dynamic and forecast for the rest of the year against USD
smartmoney.oneGlobal currencies against the dollar, ytd, %Source: Bloomberg, ITI CapitalCorrelation of the RUBUSD and oilSource: Bloomberg, ITI Capital1) FX-purchases by an average of $200 mln a day over the last two months as part of budget rule, which accounts for up to 7% of daily USD/RUB trading including MICEX TOM+TOD2) A drop in FX-sales by exporters for tax and dividend payments to an average of 20-25% of total FX-sales3) Relatively high gradient in export revenue sterilisation due to lower oil production and exports (although under OPEC+ agreement, production is currently down by only 0.6 mbpd, or 6% below the level before the OPEC deal)4) Lower non-residents funds inflows since September on the back of rising inflation expectations and a..