ITI Capital: What's wrong with Russian rouble and what should we expect till the end of the year?
smartmoney.oneTherefore, we recommend selling dollars against the rouble to short term target of ₽75/$, since in the medium term, until the end of the fourth quarter, the role of the key factors that drive the rouble-dollar premium, mainly sanctions risks, may increase following the US elections, even with Trump’s victory.Thus, the rouble is projected to trade in the ₽72-81/$ range in 4Q20, our baseline estimate for the rest of the year is ₽72/$ if Trump wins and the sanctions are suspended, which is least likely, according to our scenario published in “The rouble on the swings of geopolitics: hold on tight!” note.Source: ITI Capital, Bloomberg Source: CBR, Bloomberg, ITI CapitalSource: Bloomberg, ITI Capital.