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External debt of Russian issuers: Navigating a sanctions minefield

On 17 March, Russia’s Finance Ministry reported payment of $117 mn in interest on two dollar-denominated sovereign Eurobonds.This was an important indication that Russia is still in a position to service its hard-currency debt, despite the harsh sanctions and negative expectations from the market and rating agencies, at least until the expiration of a corresponding licence from the US Treasury on 25 May.

Further on 22 March, Finance Ministry confirmed another sovereign coupon payment, for $66 mn.Media reports that the funds have been reaching bondholders’ accounts have yet to be verified, with domestic holders of securities still reportedly unable to access the funds through the local depository.The collapse in prices for Russian sovereign debt reflected the most dramatic scenarios, including the borrower’s potential refusal to pay and low recovery values in case of a restructuring. The threat of outright default now seems to have declined but risks for investors remain high including as a result of enhanced compliance procedures at all interim stages of payments processing which could lead to delays or even suspension of transfers between depositories, as currently is the case with corporate FX debt payments to Russia-based investors.For some Russian corporate borrowers, a freeze of most of the government's liquid reserves and tight capital restrictions hamper the task of meeting their external debt obligations on original terms (which in worst-case scenarios may lead to defaults and debt restructuring).However, most major exporters can still be seen as safe havens, thanks to their holdings of foreign currency assets outside Russia and the ability to generate sizeable export revenues sufficient for continuation of.

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