The Russian market: Wild Wild East. Next, the “Iranian model”?
smartmoney.oneTechnical: (1) lifting a ban on settlements between brokers and the future of the depositary receipt market; (2) pullback of foreign investors from blocked assets; (3) the impact of channeling money from the National Wealth Fund to buy shares in Russian companies, Russian corporates’ buyback programmes, the stakeholders’ willingness and ability to buy back cheap shares.As soon as technical issues are addressed we will see who will be admitted to early trading and which stocks will get a boost. Fundamental: (4) Risks of Russia's isolation from the Western economy, chances for keeping Russia’s export operations going; (5) the rouble exchange rate. Strategic: (6) Russia's trade flow shifting towards China is imminent, and the prospects of economic alliances of emerging economies against developed ones.The last point is only partly related to "economic futurology".It defines the resilience of the Russian economy that drives a long-term equity growth.
The first six points are tactical, they allow to build a portfolio depending on what we will see at the market reopening.Most commodities are trading at all-time highs, a full embargo on Russia’s exports hasn’t been imposed.Isolating Russia completely would have serious consequences many economies.