Bank of Russia stunned OFZ market
smartmoney.oneA much more hawkish tone and the recognition that we are once again outside the “fine-tuning zone" was, in our view, the key takeaway from the past briefing.Since we, like most economists, did not expect the bank to take that hawkish tone, we are to adjust our baseline forecast.
It is difficult to project the size of the key rate at the peak of the cycle and when it is reached (so far, based on the current average range, the rate is unlikely to exceed 8.5%).The rate trajectory will essentially depend on how the data evolve.