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Rouble on the swings of geopolitics: hold on tight

Source: ITI Capital, BloombergSource: ITI Capital, BloombergIn absence of geopolitical factors, such deviation between the rouble’s exchange rate and the price of Russia’s key export commodity should contribute to sustained upward pressure on the Russian currency.However, the rouble’s recovery has been hindered by the global political calendar, in particular the forthcoming US presidential elections (and their outsized impact on bilateral relations with Russia including the scope for harsher sanctions in the event a Democratic administration comes to power in 2021).Superior indicators of Russia’s current account, international reserves and public sector indebtedness, reflected in the sovereign credit ratings, also suggest that the rouble.

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